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Tesla reported its first-ever drop in electric car sales. BYD's sales collapse almost 1.5 times

Tesla reported its first-ever drop in electric car sales. BYD's sales collapse almost 1.5 times
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Returning to the beloved section Tesla vs BYD electric vehicles, let's discuss the new sales report for Tesla cars, which once again achieved victory over BYD after the first knockout in the last quarter of 2023. However, there is a nuance - for the first time in the history of Elon "our" Musk's company, sales have dropped, even if slightly.

Tesla Electric Vehicle Sales. Worse Than Expected

This time, even Troy Teslike, known for his extremely accurate sales estimates for Tesla, seriously miscalculated. On the other hand, his forecast turned out to be the most accurate among others.

Analysts' expectations regarding Tesla sales for the first quarter of 2024

From January to March, Tesla shipped a total of 386,810 electric vehicles to customers - 8.5% less than in the same quarter of 2023 (422,875).

Tesla Car Sales (and Production) for Q1 2024

CarsNumber of Cars Produced, unitsNumber of Cars Delivered to Customers, unitsPercentage of Leased Cars, %
Model 3/Y412,376369,7832%
Other (S/X/Cybertruck)20,99517,0271%

Comparing with the fourth quarter of 2023, the results are even more disappointing - a drop of 20% (484,597 cars). Production also declined slightly - to 433,371 units (440,808 a year ago and 494,989 in the fourth quarter of 2023).

Data on Tesla sales by individual models (initial forecast and adjusted estimate). Source: Troy Teslike

It is worth mentioning separately that sales of Tesla vehicles of Chinese origin in March increased by 0.2% compared to March last year to reach 89,064. At the same time, sales of Chinese Model 3 and Model Y jumped by 47.5% compared to February. However, these numbers are not enough to confidently talk about a return to growth, considering the report on significant inventory of Model Y in the US and the decline in demand for Model 3 in Europe. Meanwhile, March sales of Tesla in China give reason for cautious optimism regarding the recovery of demand.

Tesla's report listed several factors that led to these disappointing results. The decrease in production and sales volumes in the company is explained by the initial phase of ramping up production of the updated Model 3 at the main factory in Fremont, plant shutdowns, and logistical difficulties due to attacks by Houthi rebels on ships in the Red Sea and the recent arson at Gigafactory in Berlin.

New Model 3 Performance

The complete financial report with all the details will be published on April 23, then we will see how severely the key financial indicators deteriorate - it is worth remembering that Tesla has already begun to feel the consequences of the price war. In fact, Elon Musk's company has exhausted the potential for further price reductions in China, and profitability continues to decline.

Biden Advances, Paper Tiger Retreats (unfortunately, not yet)

The intensification of competition and seasonal decline in demand in the Chinese market (Chinese New Year) predictably affected battery manufacturers and plug-in hybrid PHEV makers - BYD, funded by Warren Buffett, shipped 300,114 fully electric vehicles (BEV) in the first quarter, which is 42% less than the result of the fourth quarter of 2023.

Tesla reports the first-ever decline in electric vehicle sales. BYD's sales drop by almost one and a half times

According to EV-Volumes, around 14.2 million electric cars were sold worldwide in 2023 (10 million BEV + 4.2 million PHEV/EREV) - 16% of the total sales volume. However, the growth rates slowed down to 35% from 55% in 2022. By the end of 2023, there were approximately 40 million actively operating electric cars worldwide (70% - BEV, the rest 30% - PHEV). It is expected that in 2024, global sales of electric vehicles will reach 17.8 million units (+25% compared to 2023), and their share will increase to 25%. At the same time, BEV sales will grow to 12.8 million.


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