Artificial intelligence predicted Euro 2024 results - France won most often (in 22 simulations out of 100)

Euro 2024 kicks off today with the opening match between Germany and Scotland, and artificial intelligence predicts that the match will end in favor of the tournament hosts (2:0) with a 76% probability.

The AI Octopus model from the Luzmo startup is a reference to the octopus Paul, who predicted the results of some matches at Euro 2008 and the 2010 FIFA World Cup.

According to Luzmo's technical director, Haroen Vermilen, the company used something similar to the Monte Carlo method Monte Carlo simulation is a mathematical method that predicts the possible outcomes of an uncertain event. Computer programs use this method to analyze data from past periods and forecast a series of future results based on a choice of actions.. In 22 out of 100 simulations, France won the tournament — Luzmo's home country Belgium had a 3.4% chance of the trophy, while England had a 3.2% (although the chances of reaching the semifinals are higher).

Vermilen said in a comment to The Register that "the model itself is essentially a match simulator that performs game simulations based on metrics such as attack and defense ratings... to distribute the probabilities of attacks compared to other teams."

Euro 2024 will take place from June 14 to July 14. In the group stage, the Ukrainian national team will face Belgium, Romania, and Slovakia — the first match against Romania will start on June 17.