Musk predicted the advent of AGI (smarter than the smartest person) in two years and called Chinese automakers "the most competitive"

At the end of 2023, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang predicted that artificial intelligence would be able to compete with humans in 5 years. And now Elon Musk, known for his "very accurate forecasts," shared his own assessment - the owner of Tesla and SpaceX expects the emergence of a full-fledged AGI, smarter than the smartest person, next year or by 2026 at the latest.

On the development timelines of AGI

In a wide-ranging interview during a broadcast on X/Twitter Spaces, which was plagued by numerous technical issues, Elon Musk told the CEO of the Norwegian National Wealth Fund, Nikolai Tangen, that the development of AI hinges on available electrical power, which will be crucial in the next one to two years. He also stated that the next version of the xAI Grok chatbot will be trained by May.

"If we consider AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) as smarter than the smartest person, then in my opinion, such a one will probably appear next year, within two years," Musk said in response to a question about the development timelines of AGI.

The eccentric billionaire also complained that a shortage of advanced chips is hindering the training of the Grok 2 model and is currently the main limiting factor. According to Musk, training the Grok 2 model required about 20,000 Nvidia H100 graphics processors, and for Grok 3 and subsequent versions - at least 100,000 Nvidia H100 chips.

Earlier, Elon Musk, who is also a co-founder of OpenAI, along with other experts, called for a six-month halt to the development of more powerful neurogenerative models than OpenAI GPT-4 - to inadvertently avoid creating Skynet. After some time, Elon Musk founded his own AI startup xAI, criticized OpenAI and Microsoft several times, and then sued the developer of ChatGPT company and its director Sam Altman for deviating from the initial mission - to develop AI for the benefit of humanity, not for profit. OpenAI denies these allegations. It is also worth remembering the story of how Elon Musk wanted to lead OpenAI in 2018, but was refused, got offended, and cancelled the promised funding.

About electric vehicles and competition with BYD and others

Speaking about electric vehicles, Musk reiterated that Chinese automakers are "the most competitive in the world" and pose "the biggest competitive challenges" to Tesla. Earlier, he warned that Chinese competitors will destroy global rivals without trade barriers. Interestingly, before changing his mind about Chinese automakers, Elon Musk used to mock BYD vehicles.

Musk also mentioned a labor union strike in Sweden against Tesla at the end of 2023 and addressed the organizers saying, "I think the storm on this front has passed." In response, Tangen reported that the Norwegian National Wealth Fund with a capital of $1.5 trillion, one of the largest shareholders of Tesla, met with the company's CEO last month and received updated information on the situation.

Musk also referred to a labor union strike in Sweden against Tesla, saying, "I think the storm on this front has passed."

Tangen reported that the Norwegian National Wealth Fund with a capital of $1.5 trillion, one of the largest shareholders of Tesla, met with the company's CEO last month and received updated information on the situation.